NFL Betting for Dummies
 

sports betting tips by Steve Larson

Betting on the NFL might seem like a great way to make money, because of the odds and return involved, especially when one compares the setup to European 1-X-2 soccer betting.

The main reason for the difference is the point-spread option available to all American bettors, which is only now gaining in popularity on the other side of the pond. What exactly is the point spread? Whenever two teams go up against each-other, one of them is bound to be more valuable than the other, thus the theoretical chances of one team coming out a winner are bigger than those of the other team. This difference has to be reflected somehow, and that is what the spread does.

The favorite (the team more likely to win) will get a certain number of points subtracted from its starting score. That means these guys won't start from 0, but rather from -3, -5,5 or some handicap like that (in their 2007 week 8 game, the New England Patriots started from -16 because they were strong favorites).

The underdog starts with the same number of points added to their starting score. Basically, the underdog is given an advantage and the favorite is given a handicap. If one of the teams manages to "cover the spread" it means it did better than the spread suggested. For example, the favorite wins with a larger margin then the spread, or the dog loses at a smaller margin than the given advantage. If you bet on a team and it beats the spread, you win.

There are other ways to bet on games as well. Probably the simplest of bets is betting the "money line". This means that you bet on the winner of the match-up. If the team you bet on wins, you get paid, if it loses, you lose. Games are balanced by the bookie via the return offered. Thus, you'll get a much smaller return on a favorite than you do on an underdog. The basic concept behind all sports betting is that the bookmaker needs to offer bettors balanced games. It is a matter of survival for him. If he manages to balance each and every match-up perfectly, he'll pay winners out with what the losers lose, and keep the vig for himself. The bookmaker has various tools at his disposal to achieve this balance. He can tamper with the lines, (move the spread up and down to make the game look moreattractive for one side or the other), he can move the payout line around, but he can also adjust the vig he takes on the games. In extreme cases, when there's obvious value on a side of a game that the bettors are predominantly against, he'll risk going up against them himself (bycovering their bets with his own money).

Understanding how a bookmaker functions, is the first step you should take towards successful handicapping. You see, the bookmaker has access to information you and I and the next common man can't really get to. There are reasons behind his actions, and if you see him undertake something, all you need to do is find the reasons behind his actions and then exploit them to your advantage. It is called reverse handicapping, and it is truly the most efficient way to handicap an upcoming game.

Going about it the traditional way, finding statistics, seeking out relevant stuff in them, trying to draw conclusions from them is technically possible though it will not cut it for the common recreational bettor. Certainly, you can try that, but it won't take you far. There's way too much energy-input required and the return is uncertain at best.

Another aspect you have to pay attention to is bankroll management. It plays an extremely important role in successful sports betting, for a variety of reasons. Bottom line about it is though, that you should never wager more than 3-5% of your total sports betting bankroll. Post 5% on games that are hyped as a "lock", post less on ones you don't feel quite so strong about.

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