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Betting on the NFL might seem like a great way to make money, because
of the odds and return involved, especially when one compares the
setup to European 1-X-2 soccer betting.
The main reason for the difference is the point-spread option
available to all American bettors, which is only now gaining in
popularity on the other side of the pond. What exactly is the point
spread? Whenever two teams go up against each-other, one of them is
bound to be more valuable than the other, thus the theoretical chances
of one team coming out a winner are bigger than those of the other
team. This difference has to be reflected somehow, and that is what
the spread does.
The favorite (the team more likely to win) will get a certain number
of points subtracted from its starting score. That means these guys
won't start from 0, but rather from -3, -5,5 or some handicap like
that (in their 2007 week 8 game, the New England Patriots started from -16
because they were strong favorites).
The underdog starts with the same number of points added to their
starting score. Basically, the underdog is given an advantage and the
favorite is given a handicap. If one of the teams manages to "cover
the spread" it means it did better than the spread suggested. For
example, the favorite wins with a larger margin then the spread, or the dog loses at a
smaller margin than the given advantage. If you bet on a team and it
beats the spread, you win.
There are other ways to bet on games as well. Probably the simplest
of bets is betting the "money line". This means that you bet on the
winner of the match-up. If the team you bet on wins, you get paid, if
it loses, you lose. Games are balanced by the bookie via the return
offered. Thus, you'll get a much smaller return on a favorite than you
do on an underdog. The basic concept behind all sports betting is that
the bookmaker needs to offer bettors balanced games. It is a matter of
survival for him. If he manages to balance each and every match-up
perfectly, he'll pay winners out with what the losers lose, and keep
the vig for himself. The bookmaker has various tools at his disposal
to achieve this balance. He can tamper with the lines, (move the
spread up and down to make the game look moreattractive for one side
or the other), he can move the payout line around, but he can also
adjust the vig he takes on the games. In extreme cases, when there's
obvious value on a side of a game that the bettors are predominantly
against, he'll risk going up against them himself (bycovering their
bets with his own money).
Understanding how a bookmaker functions, is the first step you should
take towards successful handicapping. You see, the bookmaker has
access to information you and I and the next common man can't really
get to. There are reasons behind his actions, and if you see him
undertake something, all you need to do is find the reasons behind his
actions and then exploit them to your advantage. It is called reverse
handicapping, and it is truly the most efficient way to handicap an
upcoming game.
Going about it the traditional way, finding statistics, seeking out
relevant stuff in them, trying to draw conclusions from them is
technically possible though it will not cut it for the common
recreational bettor. Certainly, you can try that, but it won't take
you far. There's way too much energy-input required and the return is
uncertain at best.
Another aspect you have to pay attention to is bankroll management.
It plays an extremely important role in successful sports betting,
for a variety of reasons. Bottom line about it is though, that you
should never wager more than 3-5% of your total sports betting
bankroll. Post 5% on games that are hyped as a "lock", post less on
ones you don't feel quite so strong about.
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